I woke up this morning, more rain outside but I had a coffee to wake me up along with some free weights while watching some news on television. I’m following along with the the election but the one thing I can help but get the feeling that the media are like kids you knew at school that would spread rumours, stir up trouble then sit back and watch the drama unfold thanks to their handy work. I’m not saying that the media shouldn’t hold politicians accountable but equally I think it is important that voters see a fair representation of parties and their positions so then the voters can make an informed decision.
The cost of petrol and diesel is going crazy at the moment with unleaded 95 getting up to NZ$4.14 per litre which translates to US$8.88 per US gallon. It is always funny when I hear people talk about how the market is rational and yet can be easily swayed by promises being made by people you wouldn’t trust even if they said the sky was blue. I think things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better and even if Democrats get into power then I don’t expect much to change because they don’t have the ability to impeach and remove the US president. I expect some performative politics but don’t expect any substance until 2028 but even then I fear that we’ll see a repeat of Obama’s presidency of “we need to looking forward, not backwards” resulting in the Republicans once again getting away with what they did while in power.
Interesting things are happening around the AI bubble – interest rates are going up, questions are finally being raised about whether there is a viable business model and a pathway to profitability (it would have been nice if that done before piling in hundreds of billions into data centres based on ‘vibes’). As others have pointed out, things are going to get nasty because those involved aren’t just a bunch of rich trouser stains speculating with their parents money but we’ve now got insurance companies involved, pension funds etc. meaning the exposure has moved to mainstreet. As one analysts said, the best time for the bubble to pop was yesterday, the next best time would be today because the longer it goes on for the worse the collateral damage is going to be. Unfortunately the cheerleaders of today are going to be the ones tomorrow claiming that “no one saw this coming” except for numerous people writing articles and providing analysis that it was a house of cards.
