End of the week and the start of a new one. I have to admit, I am looking forward to going on a holiday in 4 months time and then over Christmas I’ll take off the week but I’ll return before New Years as I’d prefer keeping some annual leave up my sleeve in case I need to use it later. Next year will mark my 9 years working at the same company and I’ll be looking forward to my 10th anniversary. Hopefully next year things will get better economically but unfortunately as so long as the mad king is running the United States it won’t matter who is running New Zealand because the outcome is very much dictated by forces outside of the government’s control.
Once again the ‘anti-woke’ whining on Twitter/X is shown up for the idiocy that it is – the right wing reactionary knuckle dragging grifters whining about Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has being smacked with a clue by four when the global box office sales came in at USD$257.8 million. Who would have thunk it, their incessant whining about ‘wokeness’ is confronted with the reality that normal people don’t care about their chronically online whinging and instead normal people just to the movies to enjoy a couple of hours worth of escapism from everyday life.
The American technology world is once again getting all worked up over the latest LLM coming out of China and I personally find the whole situation rather entertaining to watch as the drama unfolds. One thing to keep in mind, as I’ve said in the past, China is decommodifying LLMs because ultimate the value isn’t the model itself but what is build upon it – AI models only have value because of what is built on top. I was watching a video from ‘Eli the Computer Guy’ and the best comparison he gave regarding the AI bubble would be if people got excited over the SMTP protocol. People don’t go out to buy the SMTP protocol, they buy mail server software that makes use of that protocol because the mail server software provides a solution to a real world problem.
Unfortunately what we’re going through now was entirely predictable – almost 30 years of historically low interest rates has created a situation where wreckless investment is made because there is very little cost associated with taking on more and more debt. When there isn’t cost associated with debt then you end up creating an environment that incentivises decisions that otherwise wouldn’t have been made had there been a cost associated with taking on debt. This is the situation we’re in when it comes to New Zealand – the decision to loosen monetary policy 30 years ago by changing the inflation band from 0-2% to 0-3% was based on this idea that a loser monetary policy will allow lower interest rates so business could borrow and then expand their operations thus creating a virtuous cycle.
The problem is that loosening the monetary policy is that money takes the path of least resistance which is to property and other forms of asset speculation. What it allowed is a the ability for some to borrow large amount of money and thus creating artificial demand to drive up the cost of housing then combine that with onerous zoning and regulation the net consequence is what we see today with houses costing 15-20 times the median wage. Cheap debt and restrictive supply has gotten us in the mess we see today but unfortunately I don’t see any politician willing to undo some of the bad policies of the past because to do that would require them to admit, either implicitly or explicitly, that they screwed up.
There was a BBC television series called ‘Pole to Pole with Michael Palin’ which opened up my eyes to the world – at the time I was 11 years old and I had visited Australia, United States and Canada but I was too young to remember many of the specifics of the travel. I’m hoping that in the next few years I might do a bit more travel but at the moment the world is a bit chaotic so I’m deciding to stay closer to home – travel around New Zealand because there are plenty of parts of the country I’ve never visited and it would be nice if for no other reason than to say “yes, I’ve been there”.

