Matisyahu's Blog

I’ve had a theory running through my head and I’ve touched on the theory in the past but I’ve never really gone into it in great detail. The reason I bring this is up is because of the recent news story regarding Susie Wiles and the inside workings of Whitehouse (link). My theory goes like this – the Republican Party establishment have tried to deal with Trump the following ways:

a) Ignore him – they tried that in the 2016 election believing that he wasn’t a serious candidate, it was a branding opportunity and then when he loses he would use it to launch a new business venture. In other words they didn’t see Trump as a serious candidate and thus could be easily dismissed (on the other hand, the Democratic Party employed the ‘pied piper strategy’ of getting Trump to be the Republican Party candidate through disproportionate air time in the belief that he was so odious that people would be more or less forced to vote for Hillary Clinton because the alternative is so much worse).

b) Fight him – during the primaries, in both 2016 and 2020 there were attempts to fight and push back (in 2020 primaries there was Bill Weld and I think another candidate but the primary was wound up with an uncontested coronation of Trump) but the reality is that the more they fought the higher his profile got as he played into the narrative that he was an outsider and those attacking him were part of the establishment.

c) ‘Professionally guide him’ – once in power the establishment believed they could ‘professionally guide him’ (a term I borrow from the show ‘Yes Prime Minister’) in the right direction but the reality is that Trump will do what Trump wants to do and it is an act of delusion if you believe you can ‘professionally guide him’ in a direction that that Trump isn’t interested in going in even if the consequences of following the advice would also benefit him.

After going down those three avenues I believe that the establishment are on option d) which is to let Trump and MAGA fail – if it is going to happen then let it happen rather than trying to fight it because the more it is fought the more Trump can blame someone else “well, I would have gotten it done but it was the deep state and the establishment that stopped me!”. It reminds me of the rope-a-dope strategy that James Carville’s was talking about in a recent article – I remember watching a video of JD Vance boasting about how Susie Wiles doesn’t try to interfere in what Trump wants to do which makes me wonder whether JD Vance is also in on it knowing that if Trump is left to his own devices he will self destruct. Allowing Trump to crash and burn has its risks but the risk of not allowing it to happen will result in MAGA continuing to be a thorn in the side of the body politic whose continued existence will metastasised into something even worse. Like an alcoholic, does MAGA need to hit rock bottom or are there a sizeable number of MAGA who are in such denial that even after hitting rock bottom they’ll still insist there is a nebulous force or forces out there that they’ll blame as the cause of why their ideology failing in the real world.

We’re already seeing some polls out recently where half of Republicans no longer consider themselves MAGA but instead just Republican which makes me wonder regarding the time line ahead whether that number will get a lot lower to the point that only the absolute had core vibes based voters are left. I also wonder whether the change in category denotes an ideological change or have they held onto their ideology but realised that the whole MAGA brand is so toxic (if that is the case the change is superficial rather than something profound self-awareness). There is also the other side of the equation and those who are the group of people who now call themselves ‘America First’ who are closely associated with an online group known as the groypers who believe that MAGA/Trump didn’t go far enough – how many will move in that direction? I guess only time will tell.

What can the Democratic Party do? Learn from the Zohran Mamdani victory in New York – material conditions matter and if you fail to deliver materially for the masses then don’t be surprised if a sizeable portion of the population fall for someone like Trump. Yes, that means you’re going to tax the top end of town, rebuild unions with employee representation on corporate boards (elected through the union), dealing with monopolies and have an active federal government that doesn’t sit on the sidelines expecting that any time soon the magic of the free market will deliver prosperity or that tax cuts at the top end of town will materialise in peoples material reality improving. Yes, that will mean setting up a ministry of works, having large scale public works projects, a pathway from high school to polytechnic to apprenticeship scheme so that a skilled army of tradespeople can be built so that we can get back into the much needed task of nation building – a career of meaningful work and sense that you’re contributing to something larger than yourself.